Executive Director of the Russkiy Mir Foundation Vyacheslav Nikonov spoke with a correspondent of Komsomolskaya Pravda about the recent protests in Moscow. Nikonov notes that many of the elements present during the Orange Revolution in Ukraine are lacking in Russia today.
– Last Saturday a large protest was held on Bolotnaya Square. Do you see an analogy with the Maidan protests in 2004?
– In part, yes; in part, no. Maidan was the result of many years of work to build up the opposition, which had distinct and bright leaders who claimed that they had won Ukraine’s presidential elections. Maidan was the apotheosis of active efforts that had been undertaken for many years against the Ukrainian authorities from within and without.
The springboards which usually work in the process of organizing the toppling of regimes are cut and dried, they are well known. As far as our meetings are concerned, from the point of view of color technologies, we are on chapter three of the classic Western textbook on organizing a revolution. And in the textbook there are, let’s say, 15 chapters. In other words, if you take a look at our situation, then we are only at the very beginning stage of the possible color revolution scenario, as many key components are missing.
– For example?
– One of the key moments is that the opposition does not have a leader. There are no young troops similar to the Ukrainian Pora. There hasn’t been any serious efforts to discredit and disintegrate law enforcement bodies and power structures. Much is missing. So from my point of view, analogies between the opposition protests on Bolotnaya and Maidan are weak. In Kiev this was the apotheosis of ‘orange’ technologies.
– Nonetheless, the protests on Bolotnaya were immediately dubbed the ‘snow’ revolution…
– Names are a part of this technology, as well as such ribbons and revelations of election manipulations.
– The organizers of the December 10 protest haven’t managed to work out a unified position. One gets the impression that a schism began to develop prior to the protest. What is this related?
– We have many various opposition forces who are unhappy with authorities, which always happens when someone rules for a long period of time. However, our opposition lacks unity, with each defending his own agenda. The communists propose a Soviet alternative, the liberal wing of the extrasystemic opposition offers a Western alternative. The only unifying thing is the protests. It is always easier to unite people under slogans against than for something.
– Perhaps the ‘revolution’ will take place on December 24, when the next protest is planned?
– Revolution entails the overthrown of authorities through means outside the bounds of the constitution. For this point of view, we can say that the revolution has already failed to materialize. Otherwise this is just demonstrations or a revolt. As far as the protests on Bolotnaya are concerned, similar protests take place in various countries and places around the globe. However, this doesn’t entail revolutions.
Revolution is a frightening thing which turns into social disintegration and throws countries back by decades. I recently published the book Russia’s Downfall: 1917, and it contains a detailed description of the mechanisms of revolutions’ appearance and their consequences. Fortunately, much of what would have happen for a revolution to take place hasn’t happened in Russia.
– But there nonetheless is a difference between the Great Revolution of 1917 and the ‘orange’ revolutions. Or are all revolutions similarly bad?
– Revolution is history with an undecided ending. If in Russia something starts happenng that is similar to what happened in the Arab world, then this is very serious. Recently one very well known opposition figure called for foreign intervention in the Russian situation in a manner similar to the Libyan scenario. And what happened in Libya, which until very recently was the most prosperous country in Africa, ranking first in terms of income per capita? External forces, I suspect, armed al-Qaeda and then supported its efforts by attacking the regime from the air. It’s difficult to say what future awaits Libya. On the cover of Russia’s Downfall there is a quote by the great sociologist Pitirim Sorokin: ‘Who can be fully certain that in lighting the small fire of revolution he is not laying the start of an enormous fire? No one!’
In 1917 the elite revolutionaries (and a revolution is always carried out by the elite) simply wanted to switch Nikolai II out with his brother Mikhail. And instead they got Lenin and Stalin. Revolutions always consume their own children. And fathers, too.
Vladimir Nazarenko
Source: Komsomolskaya Pravda
