Photo credit: E.Samarin/ mos.ru (CC BY 4.0)
According to sociologists, Russian society has experienced several important stages of comprehending and adjusting to the situation since the start of the special military operation. The experts also pointed out some other important points, such as the growing legitimacy of the entire establishment, the greater involvement of civilians in the volunteer movement, and the higher level of social cohesion in the country.
One Year of Large-Scale Uncertainty
The report "SMO Anniversary: How Has Russian Society Changed During the Year of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine?" was presented at the meeting of the Scientific Council of the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (WCIOM). The report and the follow-up discussion focused on the ways that Russian society endured the turmoil caused by the commencement of the special operation and adapted to the situation.
According to Mikhail Mamonov, head of the Political Research Department at WCIOM, 2022 was a year of great uncertainty. The main reason was the high volatility of social and political attitudes toward developments in the country. Mr. Mamonov came to the conclusion that Russian society crossed several important choice points. In March and April 2022, the first stage included an economic tsunami and simultaneous social consolidation. The second stage took place between May and early September. It could be described as the aftershock effect and strengthening of hopes. The stage from September to October was characterized by a reevaluation of the situation, and an intense volatility of opinions associated, above all, with the announced mobilization. And finally, the period from November 2022 to February 2023 included the search for the foundations of new stability with new requirements for the authorities, society, and ourselves.
Growing Legitimacy of Establishment
When it comes to the statistics reflecting the SMO support, the data is self-explanatory. 65% of our citizens supported the special military operation in March 2022 and 68% expressed their support for it in February 2023. The negative group shrank from 25% to 20%. 75% of respondents have a positive opinion of new territories becoming part of Russia, and 11% have a negative view of the above.
"One very important point is that the legitimacy of the entire establishment has grown. This applies to the heads of the territorial subjects, the government, and our legislative bodies. Thus, the support for the government's performance has grown by 14 points to 49%. While in 2021 negative opinions of the State Duma prevailed as only 30% rated it positively and 47% rated it negatively, nowadays 35% rate it negatively and 48% rate it positively," Mr. Mamonov pointed out.
The public's support for the head of the Russian state has also increased notably: 78% of citizens trust Vladimir Putin (there is a 13-point increase over 2021) and 75% approve of his performance as the president of the Russian Federation (there is a 15-point increase).
Patriotism in Action
Over the past year, citizens have become more involved in the process of special operations in one form or another. This is a very important point as well. According to Mr. Mamonov, increased involvement has been observed over the past few months. This mainly refers to all kinds of voluntary help that citizens provide to SMO participants. It is obvious that Russians have not been immune to the events on the front. They do their best to contribute to the successful completion of the operation. Thus, 79% of citizens expressed their willingness to help the residents of the new territories and the Russian soldiers. Every second respondent shared about active support in these areas (55% reported that they provided money, food, and ammunition).
At the same time, WCIOM reports that there has been a transformation in such a subject as patriotism. Survey participants were asked how they would react if a teacher asked their child to write a letter of encouragement to Russian soldiers.
73% said they would help their child with writing such a letter. "Patriotism shifts from rhetoric to patriotism in action," summarizes Mikhail Mamonov.
According to the WCIOM statistics, the number of respondents who gave a positive answer to the question about relocating abroad for residency decreased from 16% to 8%. Experts believe that this choice was affected by a more explicit articulation of the value paradigms by the Russian government.
Overcoming Shock
According to Mr. Mamonov, WCIOM was rather surprised by the data on the public adaptation to the new economic circumstances. People's estimates of their economic situation have unexpectedly improved. For instance, in January 2022, the group with low consumer power was 35%; now it is 27%. The group with high and medium consumer power has increased from 28% to 35%. In 2021, 47% of those surveyed chose the answer "everything suits me fine". The same answer was selected by 57% at the end of 2022. "The reasons are unclear. Experts expected the situation to be worse. However, the shock was quickly overcome. Moreover, life priorities and consumption criteria have changed. Thus, self-efficacy has increased. The group of people who believe that their situation depends on them and not on the external structure has grown by 10%. The situation has resulted in a reevaluation of many issues, especially consumer demands," says Mikhail Mamonov.
There is another aspect that may seem surprising. Residents have got rid of the "black glasses effect". The WCIOM expert used the above term to describe the growing negative attitude that had become prevalent in the polls since May 2018. It seemed as if people had become immune to positive changes and saw everything in black. Currently, this effect has softened. The group of people who are satisfied with the situation in their region has grown from 49% to 60%. 64% of the respondents are positive about the current economic situation in the country.
The SMO triggered another trend. The number of people who believe that Russia is now one of the great powers has increased (there is an increase of 20 points to 51%). Overall, 82% of respondents claim that Russia will become a great power within the coming 15 to 20 years or has already become one. The expert pointed out that this indicator used to be unchanged for a long time.
On top of that, WCIOM reports that there is a growing number of people who want to understand whether the authorities have a vision of the country's future and the goals for its development. The group of those who believe that the country's top leadership has a long-term development strategy has grown by 14 points and reached 54%.
So the sociologists point out that the year brought about important social developments, such as the unity and cohesion of Russian society, notwithstanding all the challenges of economic, military, and political nature.
Revising Values and Hierarchies
Alexander Malkevich, the first deputy chairman of the Commission on the Development of the Information Society of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation and the general director of the St. Petersburg TV Channel, also agrees that "the number of people involved in constructive and humanitarian projects is truly impressive." However, he believes that one of the issues is the unclear status of volunteers. "Lawmakers often overlook the people who perform the feat of building a peaceful life under daily shelling. They are teachers, doctors, officials, and journalists. They have no privileges, no statuses, and no benefits. I would like to see justice done after the SMO is over, and all the people who risked their lives would be recognized," he added.
Evgeny Minchenko, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Minchenko Consulting Communications Group, spoke about the concept of Four Russias, "One is Russia at war. It has directly faced the SMO, either by taking part in military actions or by being exposed to deprivation during them. These are the residents of the new territories and those territories that are exposed to shelling, who are involved in the continuous cargo transit to the greatest extent. Then, there is remote Russia. It faces the SMO indirectly, through the mobilized soldiers, volunteering contract servicemen, and their families. Next, there is Metropolitan Russia, which is still in the negation stage. This is a privileged class that is trying to distance itself from the current developments. And, there is Russia that has fled. It goes through a stage of depression or anger. And this public should not be disregarded.”
Sergey Starovoytov, general director of the Federal Expert Network "Club of Regions," mentioned another striking tendency generated by the SMO, which is the redefinition of social hierarchies. "Exposure to the SMO is an unconditional political and social elevator, which cannot be challenged. Whatever talent pool systems are built, it is the work within the SMO that is the unconditional social elevator. Let us look at the example. If a politician makes a mistake, he immediately goes to the front to make up for it. The previously existing social hierarchy is changing and we witness it. Some social groups (the mobilized soldiers, and servicemen) are rising to a higher level, while others are moving down in the social hierarchy. This happened, for example, with business," says the expert.
Pavel Danilin, director of the Center for Political Analysis, highlighted the ongoing decline of Western values, such as freedom, democracy, and liberalism: "A considerable part of society is convinced that when it comes to global politics, the values of freedom are replaced with the values of dictatorship, the values of democracy are replaced with the values of Nazism and fascism. It is happening in the West, and in the East (in Korea, for example). The values of liberalism are replaced with the values of aggression, etc. The above raises the question of the language that Russia uses to communicate with the outer world. And this is quite an interesting question because Russia speaks the language of real politics to the world both in formal and actual ways.”
Dmitry Nechaev, Doctor of Political Sciences and professor, spoke about a new and distinctive phenomenon in the post-Ukrainian territory. This refers to the frontier identity of Russians in Donbass and Novorossia. "Frontier is the term that means the development borderline of new territories, and it (the borderline) is quite mobile. The fact that four new territories were added to Russia means that a mobile frontier emerged further, and a new community emerged as well. This identity was developed by those who fought with the Kiev regime since 2014, those who helped the army corps in the DNR and LNR, as well as those who have been fighting in the post-Ukrainian territory since February 2022," says the professor. It is also interesting that such an identity is assumed not only by Russians but also by representatives of other peoples who share the values of the dominant ethnic group in the Russian Federation. According to Dmitry Nechaev, it is the frontier identity that is the most passionate
