Any post-election changes in Russia that may transpire will be initiated by the Kremlin, members of the Valdai International Discussion Club concluded at their ongoing 8th conference in Kaluga.
Those participating in Tuesday’s discussion session suggested various scenarios for Russia’s post-election development, eventually short listing five or six possibilities. The majority of forum participants believe that Russia is in for a period of authoritarian modernization, in which change will be imposed “from the top” – i.e. from the Kremlin.
Supporters of this scenario are convinced that, given the current political realities in the country, no other development options are possible, least of all a democratic revolution. This is true because Russian society has an acute case of “revolution-fatigue,” they explained. Moreover, despite the large group of people who are discontented with the current government, paradoxically, Russians feel no loyalty to the government they – in reality – support. Protesters against the powers-that-be are wasting their energy by focusing their efforts on setting up and running critical blogs, the Valdai experts noted.
At the same time, as some of the speakers pointed out, Russian society is also tired of the corruption and nepotism that permeate the economy. The experts argue that state officials are clearly the most despised elite group in contemporary Russian society. While oligarchs are often ridiculed, state officials are loathed.
If the government fails to address some of the most sensitive problems over the next decade, Russia’s prospects will be gloomy indeed. At the same time, as some experts observed, the government does not seem to know yet what they will do and which path the country’s development will take.
Many participants point out, as before, that foreign experts are far less emotional about Russian developments than their Russian counterparts are: they say the world needs a stable Russia. Although foreign experts concede that Russia currently faces serious problems in domestic politics, they are confident that it will go on to progress and develop.
One speaker indicated that Russia might be well advised to seek its own original development path, one that possibly looks forwards – to Asia, rather than backwards – to Europe. In touching on the issue of authoritarianism in Russia today, Valdai experts agreed that the authorities are quite tuned into shifts in the public mood, and that therefore a return to a totalitarian regime is hardly possible. It is obvious that Russians want the best future for their country, foreign experts agreed.
The Valdai conference will run for one more day in Kaluga before moving to Moscow. The participants will continue their discussions on Wednesday morning and then head to Obninsk, a technology hub near Moscow, where they will visit local industrial companies operating with foreign capital. Valdai experts have already visited similar companies in Kaluga, where they were pleasantly surprised to see that the Germans' stereotypical love for order and punctuality has taken root in Russian soil, the Volkswagen Group Rus plant being an eloquent example.
The Valdai International Discussion Club meetings are organized by RIA Novosti, the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, The Moscow News newspaper, Russia in Global Affairs, and Russia Profile magazines. The Club provides an international expert platform where leading foreign experts on Russia can obtain the most reliable information on the development of the country and its society from leading representatives of Russia’s central and regional elites.
http://valdaiclub.com/
